These results have Pheu Thai netting 203 constituency seats, but there are some 23 races that are probably too close to make a definitive call in the following provinces: Bangkok, Samut Prakan, Kanchanaburi, Nakhon Nayok, Prachinburi, Samut Sahkon, Amnat Charoen, Buriram, Ubon Ratchathani, Nakhon Sawan, Phitsanulok, and Yala. By my count, Pheu Thai is ahead in 12 of these races and trails in 11.

Assuming that these results hold, Pheu Thai’s success is rooted in its better than expected performance in the Northeast and to a lesser extent in the North. In the Northeast, while Thai Rath’s predictions (which turned out pretty accurate overall) had Pheu Thai winning 89 seats, the party is on track to win 104. Compared to expectations, its result was especially impressive in Korat (+4), Surin (+5), Ubon (+3), and Roi Et (+3). Seats Pheu Thai dropped in Si Saket and Chaiyaphum were offset by pick-ups in Yasothon and Nakhon Phanom.

In the North, Pheu Thai will probably end up with 49 seats, against the prediction of 43. Aside from holding the upper north, Pheu Thai’s success is a result of its performance in the lower north provinces of Kamphaeng Phet (+2), Nakhon Sawan (+2), Phetchabun (+1), and Phitsanulok (+1). While Pheu Thai lost one lower north seat it was expected to win in Sukhothai, that loss was offset by winning every race in Chiang Mai.

Pheu Thai did somewhat worse than expected in the Central region (excluding Bangkok), where it will end up with 40 seats (it was predicted to earn 44). There seems to be a bit of a geographical pattern to Pheu Thai’s losses, which came in the western provinces Ratchaburi, Kanchanaburi, and possibly Samut Sakhon. Losses in Chonburi are compensated by pick-ups in Singburi and Saraburi.

Of course, what kept Pheu Thai’s success from being even more resounding is the unexpected (and unexpectedly wide, in terms of seats) defeat in Bangkok. I agree with BangkokPundit that the Democrats’ negative campaign in the final stretch might have flipped a few constituencies in the capital.

Overall, considering the events since the coup, it is quite remarkable that Pheu Thai scored the best election result of any party in the history of Thailand (factoring in the party list seats, ending up with 264 seats or thereabouts out of 500), exception made for Thai Rak Thai’s crushing performance in 2005. As I had commented after the last round of by-elections in December, Pheu Thai had much more room to grow than the Democrats, but I remained skeptical of its ability to “nationalize” elections in the provinces in ways that would allow it to dispatch popular small-party candidates (particularly in the Northeast and the Central region). In this endeavor, Pheu Thai was mostly successful, due in large part to Yingluck’s candidacy, whose selection and highly scripted performance looks like a stroke of genius in retrospect.

It should also be noted that Pheu Thai has an opportunity to build on this result, through both of the strategies that Thaksin had used to build his old coalition: 1) Implementing policies that induce voters to regard the party as more important than the sum of its personalities; and 2) Co-opting small party MPs like those in Bhum Jai Thai through a mixture of positive and negative inducements.

In other words, Thaksin could be on his way to re-rebuilding his old coalition. Whether that will be allowed to happen is, of course, an entirely different matter. If it does happen, however, one can only hope that Pheu Thai will use its dominance in a more judicious, responsible, and liberal manner than Thai Rak Thai did in the past. Majority rule is important, but Thailand can do much better than a merely “plebiscitarian” democracy.

Note that: 1) The map was put together to indicate seats won by each party by province, so the location of the dots may not (likely will not) correspond to the exact constituency; 2) The Thai Rath predictions had some missing information, which I filled in with more/less educated guesses. As a result, there could be some minor mistakes about both seat totals for each party and the locations of seats picked up by each party. For example, Thai Rath predicted Pheu Thai would win 192 constituency seats, but this map has 195 red dots; all regional totals align except for the central region, where the Thai Rath did not give predictions for Sa Kaeo province. Given that Sa Kaeo is a stronghold of Sanoh Thiengthong’s clan, I provisionally assigned those seats to Pheu Thai.

The reason why this map is useful is that it provides a basis upon which we might interpret results as they come in. The big question in this election seems to be whether Pheu Thai will win a majority or a mere plurality. Because Thai Rath’s predictions indicate that Pheu Thai will win just slightly over half of the seats (192 constituency seats; 60 party list), to the extent that the results of exit polls and early vote tallies begin deviate from the baseline offered by this map (one way or the other), it might be possible to make some projections as to how the election is going to turn out. To make things more manageable, my focus will be primarily on information suggesting that Pheu Thai might pick up some seats it was expected to lose or drop some seats it was predicted to win.

Will be updating this throughout the day with information from both English/Thai sources. Rather than simply aggregate information, which others can do much more effectively/exhaustively, I will try to add some analysis and projections to make things interesting. Note that this is done mostly for fun and with rather rudimentary tools, so take any analysis/predictions made in the heat of the moment with a grain of salt.

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15:07 Exit poll showing Pheu Thai with 313 seats (247 constituency + 66 party list). That would mean about 50 constituency races more than predicted. As for the party list, 66 seats means that Pheu Thai received something like 52-53% of the vote, versus 36% for Democrats (45 seats in the party list).

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15:23 The Nation compares exit polls from three polling organizations:

Suan Dusit: Pheu Thai 313, Democrats 152
Sripathum: Pheu Thai 290, Democrats 152
ABAC: Pheu Thai 299, Democrats 132

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16:19: Based on Election Commission results, lopsided numbers in early tallies confirm Democrats win all seats in the following provinces as expected: Phatthalung (3), Trang (4), Songkhla (8), Chumpol (3), Ranong (1), Surat Thani (6), Phuket (2), Phang Nga (1), Nakhon Si Thammarat (9), Krabi (3). This gives the Dems all 40 seats they were expected to win in these provinces. In Satun, Democrats will win constituency 2 but  in constituency 1 the Chat Thai Pattana candidate is ahead.

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16:29: We can probably go ahead and give the Democrats all seats in Prachuap Khiri Khan (3) and Phetchaburi (3). Brings their total in the South (except for three border provinces) to 47 out of 48 seats they were expected to win. Satun 1 still too close to call.

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16:36 Probably safe to say the Democrats pick up all seats in Trat (1), Chanthaburi (3), Rayong (4), and Thak (3). To update, that means they hold on to 59 out of the 60 seats they were expected to get in these provinces and those considered above.

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16:51: Looking at North/Northeastern provinces where Pheu Thai was expected to win all seats. Based on early results, Pheu Thai is on track to win all races in: Lampang (4), Lamphun (2), Phrae (3), Nan (3), Phayao (3), Chiang Rai (7), Nong Khai (3), Bueng Kan (2), Mahasarakham (5), Kalasin (6), Mukdahan (2), Nong Bua Lamphu (3), Khon Kaen (10), Udon Thani (9). This for a total of 62 seats. Some races in Loei, Chaiyaphum, Sakon Nakhon, Si Saket still too early or too close to call.

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17:04 Early indications of Pheu Thai pick-ups (compared to predictions above) in the following provinces: Yasothon (should win all 3), Nakhon Phanom (should win all 4), Roi Et (should win 7 out of 8), and Phetchabun (should win 5 out of 6). This would be a net pick-up (compared to predictions) of 5 seats compared to predictions.

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17: 07 In Buriram, Bhum Jai Thai looks on track to win 7 seats, lose 1 to Pheu Thai, with one more race too close to call.

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17:54 Pheu Thai was expected to win 89 seats in NE. By my calculations, it’s well ahead in 86, slightly ahead in 14, slightly behind in 15.

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18:09 Pheu Thai was expected to win 43 seats in the North. By my calculations, it’s well ahead in 42, slightly ahead in 6, slightly behind in 4.

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18:31 Pheu Thai was expected to win 42 seats in the Central region (except Bangkok). By my calculations, it is way ahead in 24, slightly ahead in 16, slightly behind in 14.

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18:41 In Bangkok, Pheu Thai seems to be well ahead in 3 races, the Democrats in 6. The Democrats are slightly ahead in 16 races, Pheu Thai slightly ahead in 8 races.

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19:00 Overall, Pheu Thai had been predicted to win 195 constituency seats. At last count, Pheu Thai candidates were well ahead in 156, slightly ahead in 43, and slightly behind in 50.

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20:14 Pheu Thai now well ahead in 174 races, slightly ahead in 28, slightly behind in 25.

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21:26 Results now trickling in very slowly, so this will be the last update of the evening. Pheu Thai is well ahead in 187 constituencies, narrowly ahead in 18, trailing narrowly in 20. That should be good for at least 205 constituency seats, better than expected by 10+ seats.

Preliminary analysis is that Pheu Thai over-performed in the Northeast (+17) and in the North (+6), underperformed slightly in the Central region (-4), and did much worse than expected in Bangkok (-8).

Adding the 60 party list seats, Pheu Thai should end up with something in the neighborhood of 265.